The geographer calculated that sea level rise will submerge 5% of a 900 km² coastal city every 10 years. After 20 years, how many square kilometers will remain above water? - Abbey Badges
Title: How Sea Level Rise Will Finally Reshape a 900 km² Coastal City: What Remains After 20 Years?
Title: How Sea Level Rise Will Finally Reshape a 900 km² Coastal City: What Remains After 20 Years?
Rising sea levels due to climate change are slowing the pace of coastal inundation—but data reveals a sobering long-term outlook. According to recent geographer calculations, a 900 square kilometer coastal city stands to lose 5% of its land area every 10 years to rising oceans. But how much will remain after 20 years—and what does this mean for communities, infrastructure, and future planning?
The Submerged Timeline: A Decade-by-Decade Analysis
Understanding the Context
After just 10 years, 5% of the city’s total area—900 km² × 0.05 = 45 km²—will be submerged. This forces critical questions about displacement, economic impact, and adaptation.
Then comes the next decade. With cumulative effects of accelerated melting ice and thermal expansion, another 5% will vanish. But here’s the important distinction: the 5% loss compounds on the remaining area—not a flat 5% of the original. Each decade, 5% of the current area is lost.
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After 10 years:
Remaining area = 900 km² – 45 km² = 855 km² -
After 20 years:
First submergence: 900 – 45 = 855 km²
Second submergence: 5% of 855 = 42.75 km²
Remaining = 855 – 42.75 = 812.25 km²
Key Insights
Total Area Submerged After 20 Years
Over two decades, a total of 45 + 42.75 = 87.75 km² will be underwater. This means approximately 812.25 km² will remain above water.
Why This Matters for Coastal Cities
This geometric compounding loss illusion highlights a broader reality: coastal communities face not just smaller annual losses, but accelerating retreat. Every decade compounds vulnerability, threatening housing, agriculture, transport networks, and freshwater resources. Planning for adaptation—such as seawalls, elevated infrastructure, managed retreat, and nature-based solutions—becomes urgent.
Conclusion
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Thus, only **1** out of the \(\binom{4}{2} = 6\) ways to interleave R’s and L’s satisfies the condition. But these 6 interleavings are not equally likely when indistinguishable — actually, the number of distinct sequences where both R’s precede both L’s is equal to the number of ways to choose 2 positions for R’s such that both are before the positions of both L’s. Fix the positions: choose 2 out of 5 for R’s, 2 for L’s, 1 for T. Total: \(\binom{5}{2,2,1} = \frac{5!}{2!2!1!} = 30\), as before.Final Thoughts
Five years of sea level rise degrade a 900 km² city by 5% every decade, compounding losses over time. After 20 years, only about 812.25 km² will remain above sea level. This threshold underscores both the urgency of climate mitigation and the necessity for long-term, science-driven urban planning in vulnerable coastal regions.
Keywords: sea level rise impact, coastal city submersion, coastal flooding projections, ocean rise statistics, geographer sea level modeling, 5% annual loss, climate change coastal risks, how much land remains after 20 years, coastal resilience planning
Meta Description: Learn how 5% annual submersion will gradually sink a 900 km² coastal city—after 20 years, only 812.25 km² will remain. Explore the science behind sea level rise and future city vulnerability.
